2026 IPO Analysis
Which Deals Are Worth Your Money? 8 Companies. $3+ Trillion. One Guide. Sigma Lab | January 2026
Eight companies are targeting the public markets in 2026.
Some are generational opportunities.
Some are priced for perfection.
This guide tells you which is which.
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π THE VERDICT AT A GLANCE
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Company Valuation Verdict
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
SpaceX $800B-1.5T β οΈ RICH
OpenAI $830B-1T π΄ VERY RICH
ByteDance $330-500B π’ CHEAP
Anthropic $350B π‘ REASONABLE
Databricks $134B+ β οΈ RICH
Stripe $91.5-107B π‘ FAIR
Revolut $75B+ β οΈ FULL
Canva $42-65B π‘ REASONABLE
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββLegend: π’ CHEAP = High conviction π‘ FAIR = Appropriately priced β οΈ RICH = Priced for perfection π΄ VERY RICH = Significant risk
π SPACEX
$800B β $1.5T
Q3-Q4 2026
βΈ»
The Story
September 2008.
Less than $200K in the bank.
Three rockets had exploded.
Musk was divorcing. Tesla nearly bankrupt.
The fourth Falcon 1 launch was do-or-die.
A single line of code fix made the difference.
It worked.
Days later, NASA awarded SpaceX a $1.6B contract.
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Key Numbers
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Metric Value
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Starlink subs 9M+ (+21K/day)
Active satellites 9,000+
2025 launches 165-167
Starlink revenue $11.8B
Target margin 60%+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββValuation Comparables
SpaceX (IPO) $1.5T Β· 100x P/S Β· ~50% growth
Rocket Lab $45B Β· 80x P/S Β· 52% growth
Lockheed Martin $125B Β· 1.6x P/S Β· 3% growth
T-Mobile $230B Β· 2.7x P/S Β· 7% growth
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π’ Bull Case
Starlink = telecom monopoly
No competitor can match coverage
$17B EchoStar = direct-to-cell
βMusk premiumβ on multiples
π΄ Bear Case
100x P/S = priced for perfection
Sum-of-parts = $200-520B (50-65% downside)
Aerospace trades at 1.5-2x
Regulatory risk in 100+ countries
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β οΈ Verdict: RICH
$800B secondary beats $1.5T IPO.
Watch: Starlink growth, Starship tests, gov contracts.
π€ OPENAI
$830B - $1T
Late 2026 / Early 2027
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The Chaos
November 2023.
Board fired Sam Altman.
Within 24 hours β discussed merging with Anthropic.
Ilyaβs 52-page memo accused Altman of βconsistent pattern of lying.β
Five days later β Altman back as CEO.
When investors worried about $115B burn:
βIf you want to sell, Iβll find you a buyer.β
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Key Numbers
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Metric Value
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Monthly revenue $1B+
Weekly users 900M+
2025 burn $8.5B
2026 burn $17B
Losses thru 2029 $115B+
Infrastructure $1.4T committed
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββValuation Comparables
OpenAI $830B-1T Β· 41-50x P/S Β· 340% growth Β· Negative margin
Nvidia $4.5T Β· 25x P/S Β· 65% growth Β· 57% margin
Palantir $423B Β· 60x P/S Β· 47% growth Β· 28% margin
Microsoft $3.1T Β· 12x P/S Β· 16% growth Β· 36% margin
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π’ Bull Case
Fastest-growing software company ever
ChatGPT = THE consumer AI standard
Microsoft = massive distribution
AGI optionality
π΄ Bear Case
41-50x P/S + negative margins = unprecedented
$115B+ losses through 2029
Musk trial March 2026
Open-source eroding moat
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π΄ Verdict: VERY RICH
Priced for AGI, not fundamentals.
To justify $830B at 25x = need $33B revenue (1.65x current).
Watch: Musk trial, Microsoft, AGI news.
π± BYTEDANCE
$330B - $500B
2026 (TikTok situation complicated)
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The Scale
Q1 2025.
ByteDance revenue: $43B Meta revenue: $42.3B
First time ever.
Douyin e-commerce: $485B GMV (larger than Thailandβs GDP)
CapCut: 4% β 42% share in 22 months.
Zhang Yiming built most valuable private company on Earth.
Then stepped back at 38.
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Key Numbers
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Metric Value
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
TikTok MAUs 1.6B+
Douyin GMV $485-509B
CapCut share 42%
Doubao AI users 157M+
2025 profit ~$50B
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββπ¨ THE ARBITRAGE
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
ByteDance Meta
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Profit $50B $60B
P/S 1.8-2.7x 9x
P/E 7-10x 29x
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ66-80% discount to Meta.
At Metaβs multiple β $1.67 TRILLION At half Metaβs β $744B (+55% upside)
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π’ Bull Case
Most undervalued mega-cap
TikTok US deal signed Dec 2025
Douyin printing money
20-25% growth at scale
π΄ Bear Case
TikTok uncertainty persists
China = geopolitical risk
No clear IPO path
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π’ Verdict: CHEAP
Clearest value play in 2026.
Is regulatory risk really worth $1T+ discount?
Watch: TikTok deal, IPO structure, China regulation.
π§ ANTHROPIC
$350B
H2 2026
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The Story
Dario Amodei built GPT-2 and GPT-3 at OpenAI.
Left in 2021 over safety concerns.
Took sister Daniela and key researchers.
Their bet: enterprises pay premium for trusted AI.
Claude Code: $0 β $1B ARR in 6 months.
βSafety-firstβ became the moat.
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Key Numbers
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Metric Value
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Claude users 30M MAU
Claude Code Top 3 in AI coding
Enterprise mix 80%
Business customers 300,000+
Pentagon contract $200M
Breakeven 2028
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββValuation Comparables
Anthropic $350B Β· 39x P/S Β· 800% growth Β· 80% enterprise
OpenAI $1T Β· 41-50x P/S Β· 340% growth Β· 30% enterprise
Palantir $423B Β· 60x P/S Β· 47% growth Β· 55% enterprise
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π’ Bull Case
Enterprise-first = more defensible
Claude Code = developer lock-in
At Palantirβs 60x = $540B
π΄ Bear Case
Still #2 to OpenAI in consumer
Google + Amazon investments = complexity
AI coding could commoditize
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π‘ Verdict: REASONABLE
Enterprise AI bet vs. OpenAIβs consumer bet.
Lower risk, more defensible. Also lower upside.
Watch: Claude releases, enterprise contracts.
πΎ DATABRICKS
$134B
Q1-Q2 2026
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The Story
All 7 co-founders = UC Berkeley researchers.
They created Apache Spark.
CEO Ali Ghodsi came to US as refugee at age 5.
2016: $500M valuation, $1M revenue.
Board member: βEven a local restaurant has higher revenues.β
Asked Ben Horowitz for $200K β he gave $11M.
That bet = now worth $10B+.
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Key Numbers
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Metric Value
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
NRR 140%+
Gross margin 74-77%
FCF Positive
AI revenue $0 β $1B (18mo)
Fortune 500 60%+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββvs. Snowflake
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Databricks Snowflake
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Valuation $134B $75B
Revenue $4.8B $3.4B
P/S 28x 17.5x
Growth 55% 29%
NRR 140%+ 125%
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββPremium justified?
55% growth Γ 0.60x = 33x P/S = $158B
Current $134B = supportable.
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π’ Bull Case
Best-in-class SaaS metrics
140%+ NRR = elite
Apache Spark creators = moat
π΄ Bear Case
2021: multiples crashed 50x β 15x
At Snowflake parity = $84B (37% down)
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β οΈ Verdict: RICH (but justifiable)
Highest-quality company in IPO class.
Watch: Growth rates, Snowflake competition.
π³ STRIPE
$91.5B - $107B
H1 2026
βΈ»
The Story
Patrick was 19. John was 17.
Already sold first company for $5M in 2008.
Peter Thielβs seed: $20M valuation.
Today that stake = ~$9B.
457,400% return.
Stripe Atlas = 1 in 5 Delaware C Corps.
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Key Numbers
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Metric Value
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Payment volume $1.4 TRILLION
Volume growth 38% YoY
Stablecoin volume $250B+
Fraud blocked (BFCM) $917M
Fortune 100 50%
Profit (2024) +$102M pre-tax
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββValuation Comparables
Stripe $91.5-107B Β· 18-21x P/S Β· 34-38% growth
Adyen $47B Β· 18x P/S Β· 22% growth
PayPal $55B Β· 1.65x P/S Β· 5% growth
Visa $620B Β· 17x P/S Β· 10% growth
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π’ Bull Case
Most fairly priced mega-IPO
Matches Adyen + faster growth
Developer ecosystem = switching costs
π΄ Bear Case
$107B requires 30%+ growth
Payments commoditizing
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π‘ Verdict: FAIR
Safest bet in 2026 IPO class.
At $91.5B = fair. At $107B = paying for growth.
Watch: TPV growth, stablecoin adoption.
π¦ REVOLUT
$75B+
2026
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The Story
Nik Storonsky was 23.
Working at Lehman Brothers when it collapsed.
His lesson: βFire 80% of bankers, nothing changes.β
Won Economics Olympiad twiceβself-taught.
Competitive swimmer and boxer.
Renounced Russian citizenship after father sanctioned.
Baldertonβs Β£1.5M seed = now $10.9B+.
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Key Numbers
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Metric Value
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Customers 65M+
2024 revenue $4B (+72% YoY)
2024 profit $1.0B net
2026 targets $9B rev, $3.5B profit
UK license July 2024 (restricted)
Countries 38
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββValuation Comparables
Revolut $75B Β· 18.75x P/S Β· 65M customers
Nu Holdings $82B Β· 8.5x P/S Β· 127M customers
SoFi $25B Β· 10x P/S Β· 10M customers
Robinhood $44B Β· 14x P/S Β· 24M customers
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π’ Bull Case
Survived Lehman β built to disrupt banks
Worth more than Barclays, Deutsche, Lloyds
Crypto = 32% of 2024 profits
π΄ Bear Case
Nu has 2x customers at similar valuation
18.75x premium to SoFi aggressive
2026 targets must be hit
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β οΈ Verdict: FULL
Priced for perfect execution.
If 2026 targets hit β normalizes. If missed β significant downside.
Watch: Customer growth, UK lending, crypto.
π¨ CANVA
$42B - $65B
H2 2026
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The Story
Melanie Perkins was rejected by 100+ VCs.
2007 to 2012. No one would fund it.
Perth, Australiaβmost remote city on Earth.
First office = motherβs living room.
Learned kitesurfing to meet Bill Tai.
Bob Iger invested personally.
Said sheβs βcapable of running a much larger company.β
Pledged $12B+ to charity.
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Key Numbers
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Metric Value
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Users 260M+
Profitable years 8 consecutive
Fortune 500 95%
Presentation share ~55%
AI usage 800M/month
Education users 100M
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββValuation Comparables
Canva $42-65B Β· 12-19x P/S Β· 44% growth
Adobe $145B Β· 6.3x P/S Β· 11% growth
Figma (blocked) $20B Β· ~40x P/S Β· 40%+ growth
HubSpot $40B Β· 13x P/S Β· 21% growth
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π’ Bull Case
12-19x = DISCOUNT to Figmaβs 40x
Affinity acquisition β made FREE
8 years profitable
π΄ Bear Case
Adobe competing hard
Free tier = conversion challenges
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π‘ Verdict: REASONABLE
Reasonable entry into profitable SaaS.
Figma comp makes valuation attractive.
Watch: Enterprise growth, Affinity integration.
π PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
By Risk Profile
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
CONSERVATIVE (Value + Quality)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
ByteDance 66-80% META discount
Stripe Fair value, proven
Canva Profitable, reasonable
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
MODERATE (GARP)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Anthropic Enterprise AI
Databricks Elite metrics
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
AGGRESSIVE (Momentum)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
SpaceX Musk premium
OpenAI AGI bet
Revolut Execution dependent
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββπ
KEY DATES
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Timing Event
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Q1 2026 Databricks window
H1 2026 Stripe timing
March 2026 OpenAI/Musk trial
H2 2026 Anthropic, Canva
Q3-Q4 2026 SpaceX targeted
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββπ― FINAL VERDICTS
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
Company Verdict Conviction
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
ByteDance π’ CHEAP Highest
Stripe π‘ FAIR High
Canva π‘ REASONABLE High
Anthropic π‘ REASONABLE Medium-High
Databricks β οΈ RICH Medium
SpaceX β οΈ RICH Medium
Revolut β οΈ FULL Low-Medium
OpenAI π΄ VERY RICH Speculative
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββBest Value: ByteDance Safest Bet: Stripe Best Quality: Databricks Highest Risk/Reward: OpenAI Most Underrated: Canva
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Sigma Lab Trading Community
January 2026 β All Data Verified
Not financial advice. Do your own research.